May 27, 2022

Arizona's Workforce

The following is a breakdown of the Arizona Workforce as provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics:

                             Trade,Transportation,and Utilities: 20%

                                Education & Health Services:         15.54%

                             Professional & Business Services:   14.85%

                                Government:    13.46%

                             Leisure & Hospitality:     10.78%

                               Financial Activities:  8.12%

                             Manufacturing:  6.11%

                              Construction:  5.99%

                            Other Services: 3.13%

                              Information:  1.62

                            Mining and Logging: 0.41%

 

NOTE:  There is a current shortfall in the Manufacturing Sector of 11,000 positions waiting to be filled.

 

Posted in Market Commentary
May 23, 2022

Recent Award from LeadingRE

 

Scottsdale, AZ) –  Arizona Best Real Estate received the prestigious Diamond Award from Leading and it’s a true pleasure to recognize them and celebrate their success,” said LeadingRE President/CEO Paul Boomsma.

 

Arizona Best Real Estate is the Greater Phoenix representative of LeadingRE (www.LeadingRE.com). With a membership that spans six continents, LeadingRE connects 550 firms and 150,000 sales associates who produce 1.3 million real estate transactions each year. As a member of LeadingRE, Arizona Best Real Estate combines authentic local market leadership with top-ranked resources and relationships with other premier real estate firms across the country and around the world.

 

Our residential real estate services are individual and unique, like our clients. With personal attention at the forefront of everything we do, our experienced and knowledgeable real estate consultants will help you buy, sell, relocate and invest with confidence and ease. Our convenient locations include our Scottsdale, Downtown Scottsdale, Southeast Valley, and West Valley.

Posted in Market Commentary
May 16, 2022

2022 Home Price forecast

Will Home Prices Fall This Year? Here’s What Experts Say.

Will Home Prices Fall This Year? Here’s What Experts Say | MyKCM

Many people are wondering: will home prices fall this year? Whether you’re a potential homebuyerseller, or both, the answer to this question matters for you. Let’s break down what’s happening with home prices, where experts say they’re headed, and how this impacts your homeownership goals.

What’s Happening with Home Prices? 

Home prices have seen 121 consecutive months of year-over-year increases. CoreLogic says:

Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full year average of 6%.”

So why are prices climbing so much? It’s because there are more buyers than there are homes for sale. This imbalance is expected to maintain that upward pressure on home prices because homes for sale are a hot commodity in today’s low-inventory housing market.

Where Do Experts Say Prices Will Go from Here?

Experts say the housing market isn’t set up for a price decline due to that ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. In the latest home price forecasts for 2022, they’re calling for ongoing appreciation throughout the year (see graph above).

While the experts are forecasting more moderate price appreciation, the 2022 projections show price gains will remain strong throughout this year. First American explains it like this:

While house price growth is expected to moderate from the rapid pace of 2021, strong home buyer demand against a backdrop of historically tight inventory of homes for sale will likely keep appreciation positive in the coming year.”

What Does That Mean for You?

The biggest takeaway is that none of the experts are projecting depreciation. If you’re a homeowner thinking about selling, the higher price appreciation over the last two years has been great for your home’s value, but it’s also something you should factor in when planning your next steps. If you’ll also be buying a home after selling your current house, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Waiting will only cost you more in the long run because climbing mortgage rates and rising home prices will have an impact on your next home purchase. Freddie Mac says:

“If you’re thinking about waiting until next year and that maybe rates are higher, but you’ll get a deal on prices – well that’s risky. It may be more advantageous to purchase this year relative to waiting until 2023 at this time.”

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of selling to move up, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Experts say prices will continue to appreciate this year. That means, if you’re ready, buying your next home before prices climb further may make the most financial sense. Let’s connect to begin the process of selling your current home and looking for your next one before prices are higher.

 

Posted in Market Commentary
April 28, 2022

Home ownership as a hedge against inflation

If you’re following along with the news today, you’ve likely heard about rising inflation. You’re also likely feeling the impact in your day-to-day life as prices go up for gas, groceries, and more. These rising consumer costs can put a pinch on your wallet and make you re-evaluate any big purchases you have planned to ensure they’re still worthwhile.

If you’ve been thinking about purchasing a home this year, you’re probably wondering if you should continue down that path or if it makes more sense to wait. While the answer depends on your situation, here’s how homeownership can help you combat the rising costs that come with inflation.

Homeownership Offers Stability and Security

Investopedia explains that during a period of high inflation, prices rise across the board. That’s true for things like food, entertainment, and other goods and services, even housing. Both rental prices and home prices are on the rise. So, as a buyer, how can you protect yourself from increasing costs? The answer lies in homeownership.

Buying a home allows you to stabilize what’s typically your biggest monthly expense: your housing cost. If you get a fixed-rate mortgage on your home, you lock in your monthly payment for the duration of your loan, often 15 to 30 years. James Royal, Senior Wealth Management Reporter at Bankrate, says:

A fixed-rate mortgage allows you to maintain the biggest portion of housing expenses at the same payment. Sure, property taxes will rise and other expenses may creep up, but your monthly housing payment remains the same.” 

So even if other prices rise, your housing payment will be a reliable amount that can help keep your budget in check. If you rent, you don’t have that same benefit, and you won’t be protected from rising housing costs.

Use Home Price Appreciation to Your Benefit

While it’s true rising mortgage rates and home prices mean buying a house today costs more than it did a year ago, you still have an opportunity to set yourself up for a long-term win. Buying now lets you lock in at today’s rates and prices before both climb higher.

In inflationary times, it’s especially important to invest your money in an asset that traditionally holds or grows in value. The graph below shows how home price appreciation outperformed inflation in most decades going all the way back to the seventies – making homeownership a historically strong hedge against inflation (see graph above):

So, what does that mean for you? Today, experts say home prices will only go up from here thanks to the ongoing imbalance in supply and demand. Once you buy a house, any home price appreciation that does occur will be good for your equity and your net worth. And since homes are typically assets that grow in value (even in inflationary times), you have peace of mind that history shows your investment is a strong one.

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to buy a home, it may make sense to move forward with your plans despite rising inflation. If you want expert advice on your specific situation and how to time your purchase, let’s connect.

______________________________________

 

Posted in Market Commentary
March 16, 2020

Market Statistics

As the valley's housing market continues to heat up, prices are rising and homes are selling faster than they were a year ago.

The Phoenix area experienced the nation's sharpest drop in housing inventory during February compared with a year earlier, according to data released by Realtor.com.

       The following are statistics to know about the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

                               March 16,2020

Total Active Residential Listings                                                          6,769

Total Residential Listings Under contract                                            10,351

Average Market Time                                                                        55.9 days

Compared to last year at this time                                                     72.4 days

List Price vs. sales price                                                                    99.0%

Compared to last year                                                                      98.2%

Number of sales YTD                                                                        12,171

Average Sales Price                                                                           $430,016

Compared to last year                                                                       $386,306

 

Based on current numbers we have an approximate inventory of 42 days.  Normal balanced market is 6 months.

Posted in Market Commentary
Feb. 3, 2020

More building but no boom

Builders, buyers and investors are more bullish on new homes because of the extreme shortage of existing homes for sale in metro Phoenix and other surrounding areas.  Year to date sales of existing homes are 3,459 with an active inventory of 7,685 homes.  That means if there were no new listings the existing inventory would be sold in 2.2 months.  A normal seller/buyer market is approximately 6 months.

A repeat of the overbuilding fiasco of 2006 ( 60,000 new homes valley wide ) which was based on very speculative demand is not on the drawing board.

Additionally, buyers today are consumers with a down payment  a real mortgage and for the most part plan to live in the home.

New home construction in 2019 was about 22,000 and about 23,000 homes are expected to be constructed this year.  The current anticipated numbers are low because of a lack of new home lots available, higher construction costs and a labor shortage.

Please contact me for information on all new home subdivisions.  Builders have  spec homes for immediate occupancy or if your plans are to move in the near future, a new build takes on average 8 months for completion. I can set up a portal for you to explore subdivisions all over the valley.

 

Posted in Market Commentary
Jan. 13, 2020

Metro Phoenix named hottest hoosing market

Metro Phoenix is the "hottest" housing market in the U.S., according to respected national experts.

However, the term hottest is not defined as it was in the past when prices and building of homes were going up in double digits.

Metro Phoenix is hot now because prices are not expected to drop as they are in other major metropolitan areas.  The reason for the stability of our market is the  sturdy job and population growth.  In 2018, our population grew by 96,000 people and in 2019, 70,000 jobs were added. At the time of the housing bubble, our area lost 155,00 jobs. Since that time we have added 350,00 jobs during the recovery.

Valley home prices are expected to rise 4% in 2020.  Additionally, new home construction has been increasing. Slowing down the rate of new home building has been the shortage of labor.  Builders I have spoken with do not see a large influx of available labor.  Most builders are telling us that the normal lead time for  new home construction is 6-8 months.

If you are interested in new homes, I can provide information on all developments in the valley

Posted in Market Commentary
Dec. 9, 2019

Is Now A Good Time To Buy a Home

I am often asked when is the best time of year to buy a home in Metro Phoenix.

For the years 2015 through 2018, the month with the lowest median purchase price is January. For each of these years the median purchase price was between five to nine percent higher in December than the preceding January.  By the end of 2019 we will see a repeat of this pattern.

So, now may be a good time of the year to begin the home buying process. Based on information for the last few years, we are moving into the season when purchase prices are at their lowest of the year. Of course this information is based on sales of all single family resales in Maricopa County.

If mortgage rates continue to be as low in 2020 as they have been the last half of 2019, which is likely, this will mean many buyers will be competing for new listing inventory.

Maricopa projected population growth in 2020 is expected to be similar to the last few years.  Maricopa County will lead all US counties in numeric population increase.  The city of Phoenix will lead all cities in the nation for a numeric population increase.

Employers will continue to move operations to Maricopa County to fill jobs because of our population growth and people will continue moving here because of job opportunities. As previously mentioned, Mortgage rates are predicted to remain historically low, which means more purchasing power for buyers.

 

Posted in Market Commentary
Sept. 23, 2019

A Glimmer of Hope for Buyers

A faint glimmer of good news for buyers as the supply of homes has finally stopped declining and actually rose slightly in the last week.  While active listings are still 16% lower than they were at this time last year, they are 1% higher than 4 weeks ago.  This rise can be attributed to a 10% increase in new listings from July to August.  This is not uncommon, as July is typically a low in the year for new listings.  However, this August was 3% below last August in comparison and the lowest August since 2016.  

One price range where inventory is still declining are homes listed in the $200K-$250K range.  Inventory in this price range has plummeted 51% since February.  The Southeast valley of Maricopa County has seen the largest decline of 73% in this price range for single family homes.

Posted in Market Commentary
Aug. 5, 2019

Phoenix Employment Growth

Employment growth in metro Phoenix was robust, gaining 58,500 jobs in the 12 months ended March 31, showing a gain of 3.1%, nearly double the national rate.  Improvement was widespread, with all sectors showing net gains.  Construction led the way with the addition of 14,000 positions (badly needed) with the sustained expansion of real estate development.  Education and health services followed closely adding 13,900 jobs, bolstered by both Arizona State University and the booming bioscience field.  Professional and business services also added 11,600 jobs, as the metro Phoenix area is competing with Texas in corporate relocation and expansions.

Posted in Market Commentary