Rising Home Prices May Slow
Valley home prices are expected to climb at a slower pace or flatten out during the coming year.
Housing market watchers including Realtor.com expect Phoenix home prices to climb between 4 and 6 percent this year.
This forecast is based on pending sales, population projections and recent job growth numbers.
That compares to the 6 to 8 percent annual home price increases during the past few years,
Worried about a bubble?
Home prices reached a medium price of $268,000 last summer, than dropping to $262,000 last fall. That said, if inflation is taken into consideration, home values are more than 10 percent below the 2006 boom level.
Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report said " nothing in the current data shows a market crash coming for Phoenix."
There is some good news for buyers in that there are 4.2% more listings than one year ago, however, that only provides approximately 3.2 months of inventory, well below normal averages.
September 25 Statistics
Phoenix Metropolitan Area
Total Active Residential Listings 13,726
17,057 (with ICB included)
Average Market Time 61 days
Compared to last year at this time 65 days
List Price vs. sales price 97.9% days
Compared to last year 97.7% days
Number of sales YTD 64,011
Average Sales Price $329,945
Compared to last year $305,513
Overall appreciation or depreciation 7.9%
Statistics Phoenix Metropolitan Area
September 13, 2018
Total Active Residential Listings 16,187 (Active)
Average Market Time 59.9 days
Compared to last year at this time 65.53 days
List price vs. sales price 97.9%
Compared to last year 97.6%
Number of sales YTD (2.5% increase) 69,603
Average sales price $319,954
Compared to last year $294,987
Overall appreciation or depreciation 8.5%
Phoenix Metropolitan Statistics
August 21, 2018
Total Active Residential Listings 16,059 (Active)
Average Market Days 58.4 days
Compared to last year at this time 66 days
List price vs. sales price 98.2%
Compared to last year 97.8%
Number of sales YTD (2.5% increase) 64,318
Average sales price $321,182
Compared to last year $298,794
Overall appreciation 7.8%
In June,the Valley's median home price soared past the previous record to reach $268,000 according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. The previous record of $265,000 was set in June of 2006.
Comparing the Valley's housing market prior to the 2006 rise in home prices to today's market is like comparing night and day. Easy loans with outrageous costs led to foreclosures in metro phoenix, which by 2011 were about 4,500 per month.At the time, some national housing analysts said it would take 20 to 25 years for recovery.
Here are reasons why I feel good about this market:
- Fewer than 5% of all metro Phoenix home owners are underwater.
- Valley foreclosures are down to less than 150 a month
- Phoenix area home values have been steadily ticking up 5 to 8 percent a year for the last 5 years.
- Maricopa County is the fastest growing county in the country.
The Valley draws bargain hunting homebuyers from other major cities.
Here are some comparable Median home costs from other Western cities:
- Seattle $485,000
- Los Angeles $550,000
- Denver $442,000